Local Political Expert (Iowa) — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk
Listing checked October 17, 2026 · pay as published by Mercor
Overview
Jade needs expert-authored forecasting and research data that helps evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. In this remote hourly role, you write political reports on Iowa elections, polling, and political-risk events from a fixed evidence cutoff. Each report captures the judgment a strong analyst would make at that point, with no hindsight. You also grade model-generated analyses against your own standard.
What You'll Do5
- 1Write point-in-time political reports and forecasts for Iowa races using a stated evidence cutoff.
- 2Make directional calls on polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds, then document the reasoning behind each one.
- 3Explain the causal chain that links an event to its expected political and market impact.
- 4Review AI-generated analyses and grade them against your own analyst standard.
- 5Keep every task inside the cutoff by avoiding hindsight, data leakage, confidential material, or non-public information.
Requirements7
- 1Hands-on work on specific Iowa races: a current or upcoming Senate, governor, or statewide contest, or a recent cycle in the same state.
- 2On-the-ground knowledge of Iowa's electorate, candidates, and local political environment.
- 3A background as a university political scientist, state or regional pollster, state campaign or party analytics staffer, or state political-risk analyst.
- 4A record of live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds in those races, not retrospective commentary.
- 5Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.
- 6A typical profile has 8+ years of direct experience, or clear evidence of equivalent performance.
- 7US race experience is central; international politics, geopolitics, or country risk work alone does not qualify.
Who Should Apply
The ideal candidate has worked on current or recent Iowa races, whether Senate, governor, or statewide, and can show live calls on polling or odds. University political scientists, state pollsters, campaign analytics staff, and state political-risk analysts fit this work.
Salary Insight
The posting lists $100 to $200 per hour. Expect the higher end to go to analysts who can show 8+ years of Iowa race work and a strong work-sample record.
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This role
$100–$200/hr
Most AI Training roles pay $38–$95 per hour. This role's pay sits above that range.
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Compensation
$100–200/hr
Required Skills
Application Tip
Build your application around the work sample: name the Iowa races you covered and the cutoff dates when you made live calls on polling, win probabilities, or odds. Show the outcome or grading standard for each call and how you kept hindsight and data leakage out of the analysis.
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