Local Political Expert - Remote Elections Forecasting
Listing checked September 22, 2026 · pay as published by Mercor
Overview
Jade builds expert-authored forecasting and research data that evaluates and improves AI models on real political and financial analysis. You write point-in-time political reports from a fixed evidence cutoff, so each forecast reflects only what a strong analyst could know at that moment. Work centers on elections forecasting, polling, and political-risk events in specific states. You also grade model-generated analyses against your own standard.
What You'll Do4
- 1Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from an assigned evidence cutoff.
- 2Make directional calls on polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
- 3Document the causal mechanism behind each event's expected political and market impact.
- 4Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own analytical standard.
Requirements7
- 1Hands-on work on a current or recent Senate, governor, or statewide race in a swing state.
- 2Deep knowledge of the electorate, candidates, and political dynamics in that state.
- 3A record of live judgments on polling, win probabilities, or odds during those races.
- 4Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.
- 5At least 8 years of direct experience, or clear evidence that your performance matches that level.
- 6Background in a university political science department, survey research center, state or regional polling firm, state campaign analytics team, or race-ratings outlet with state coverage.
- 7National forecasting or political risk experience paired with deep knowledge of one state.
Who Should Apply
The right candidate has direct, current or recent experience on a Senate, governor, or statewide race in a swing state. You have made live calls on polling, win probabilities, or odds, and you know the candidates and electorate from the inside. Profiles focused on international politics, geopolitics, or country risk with little US race work will not fit. The same goes for pure communications or journalism backgrounds with no demonstrated forecasting or probabilistic judgment, and for academic work that remains theoretical with no analysis of live races. A common reason candidates get rejected: they only offer retrospective commentary instead of documented point-in-time judgments.
Salary Insight
Pay falls between $150 and $250 per hour. The rate reflects the senior level of this work and lines up with analysts who have 8+ years of direct race experience and a record of live forecasting.
Location
Compensation
$150–250/hr
Required Skills
Application Tip
Lead with a current or recent swing-state race you covered live. Name the race, cycle, and state, then describe one forecast you made from a point-in-time cutoff, including the probability or odds you assigned before the event. Strong samples show polling literacy and causal reasoning, not retrospective takes.
See NearSkill jobs more often in your search
Application & verification flow
1Instant rubric match
Your resume is scanned against this role’s requirements to check qualification fit.
2Screened before the employer sees it
Only profiles that clear screening are passed on.
3Outcome by email
We notify you at the address on your resume once the screening is reviewed.
Similar open positions
Explore active roles that match your skills and interests.
Mercor
VerifiedElections Forecaster - Political Risk (Remote)
Jade builds expert-written forecasting and research data that helps evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. You will write elections reports and forecasts from a fixed evidence cutoff, so every judgment must reflect what a strong analyst knew at that moment. The work covers polling, win probabilities, market-implied odds, and political-risk events. Your reports also explain the causal chain behind expected political and market outcomes.
Turing
VerifiedDomain Expert- Politics
Turing seeks a Politics Domain Expert to evaluate and improve Large Language Models with a focus on political science, governance, elections, public policy, and international relations. The role involves designing challenging prompts that test factual accuracy, reasoning, completeness, and nuance in AI-generated responses. You will build benchmark datasets and adversarial test cases to expose hallucinations, logical inconsistencies, outdated information, and edge cases. Work happens remotely on a contractor basis for 8 weeks at 40 hours per week with a 4-hour PST overlap.
Mercor
VerifiedEquity Research Analyst - Single-Name Remote
Jade creates expert-written forecasting and research data that teams use to test and improve AI models on real financial analysis. This engagement centers on single-name equity analyst publications, where you predict when a named sell-side analyst will publish after a catalyst and what that note will say. Each task starts from a fixed evidence cutoff, so you reason with just the information available at that moment. The work is remote and paid by the hour, with output judged on sell-side equity research judgment across filings, earnings transcripts, estimates, valuation, and ratings.
Mercor
VerifiedCompany Analysis Expert: Event Propagation - Remote
You will contribute to a dataset that tests and improves AI models on genuine financial analysis. Each assignment sets a strict evidence cutoff, so you reason as a strong analyst would at that moment, without hindsight. Your focus is event propagation: pinpointing companies tied to an upcoming event and projecting how the catalyst moves through each one. The work demands mapping economic networks from primary filings and judging model outputs.
Mercor
VerifiedData Analysis Expert - Remote AI Evaluation
Mercor maintains a standing pool for data analysis experts who want to train and evaluate frontier AI models. Research teams bring their hardest data judgment calls here, and your standards help build the rubrics that grade model answers. The pool spans business intelligence, data engineering, statistics, and machine learning, with part-time project work that starts on short notice. A matching project may arrive within a week or take several months, depending on client needs. The listing stays open even when no project is active.
AfterQuery
VerifiedForensic Accounting Expert - Remote Contract
AfterQuery, a YC-backed startup, needs a forensic accounting expert to create case studies and questions that push AI models on fraud detection, financial statement analysis, asset tracing, damages calculations, interviewing methods, evidence gathering, and expert report writing. You will judge model answers and explain where they fall short against investigative standards and real forensic practice. The contract runs remote and asynchronous, about 10 hours each week, so you can fit the work around another practice or job. Your scenarios help train systems that must handle fraud investigations and litigation support with practical insight.