Elections Forecaster - Political Risk (Remote)
Listing checked September 15, 2026 · pay as published by Mercor
Overview
Jade builds expert-written forecasting and research data that helps evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. You will write elections reports and forecasts from a fixed evidence cutoff, so every judgment must reflect what a strong analyst knew at that moment. The work covers polling, win probabilities, market-implied odds, and political-risk events. Your reports also explain the causal chain behind expected political and market outcomes.
What You'll Do5
- 1Write point-in-time political reports and forecasts using only evidence available before the stated cutoff.
- 2Form directional calls on polling results, win probabilities, and market-implied odds, then document the reasoning.
- 3Trace the causal path from a political event to its expected electoral and market consequences.
- 4Grade model-generated analyses against your own forecasting standard and note where the model falls short.
- 5Flag any use of hindsight, leaked data, confidential information, or material non-public information.
Requirements5
- 18+ years of direct work as an elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling methodologist, or political-risk analyst.
- 2A track record of live forecasts on polling, win probabilities, or betting odds, not retrospective commentary.
- 3Strong polling literacy: sampling, error margins, house effects, and trend analysis.
- 4Ability to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff without hindsight or data leakage.
- 5Experience in national polling firms, election-forecasting shops, major decision desks, senior analytics teams for presidential, Senate, or governor races, or political-risk desks at banks, funds, or firms such as Eurasia Group and EIU.
Who Should Apply
Elections forecasters, polling methodologists, campaign strategists, and political-risk analysts with 8+ years of live judgment will find this role matches their skills. The strongest candidates have produced real-time calls on polling, win probabilities, or odds and can defend those calls from a fixed evidence cutoff. The work is less suitable for journalists, communications professionals, or academics who lack a record of probabilistic forecasting. Candidates often score low when they rely on hindsight, mix in later information, or submit analysis that reads like commentary instead of a point-in-time forecast. Another common gap is weak polling literacy, such as ignoring sampling error, house effects, or base rates.
Salary Insight
Jade lists $150 to $250 per hour for this contract. That range sits at the top end for expert political analysis work and fits people with 8+ years of live forecasting or senior political-risk desk experience.
Location
Compensation
$150–250/hr
Required Skills
Application Tip
Lead your application with a live forecast you made before a known outcome, state the evidence cutoff, and show how you assigned a probability or odds. Name the race, polling source, and result. That point-in-time proof matters more than a list of media appearances or publications.
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Application & verification flow
1Instant rubric match
Your resume is scanned against this role’s requirements to check qualification fit.
2Screened before the employer sees it
Only profiles that clear screening are passed on.
3Outcome by email
We notify you at the address on your resume once the screening is reviewed.
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